A robust DCF is the standard for warehouse solar board approval. Here's how to build one — and how to validate any model an installer sends you.
DCF model structure
(1) PVSyst yield: year 1 kWh, 0.35-0.45%/yr degradation, P50/P90. (2) Self-consumption profile: HH meter data × generation profile. (3) Revenue: self-consumed saving + SEG export. (4) Capex: EPC + DNO + structural + design. (5) Tax: AIA year 1 (up to £1m, £250k shield at 25% CT), 50% FYA above £1m. (6) Opex: O&M £5-8k/yr per 500 kW, monitoring, insurance. (7) Terminal value: year 25 residual.
PVSyst validation
Accept: Meteonorm 8.1 or SolarGIS GHI source. 3D shade scene. Module degradation per manufacturer spec. PR 79-83%. Our models: typically within 2% of measured first-year actual generation.
Self-consumption from HH data
Request HH export from energy supplier. Overlay PVSyst hourly output. Cold store: 87-94%. Logistics: 72-82%. Cross-dock/intermittent: 65-77%. Our models: within 5% of measured outturn.
Grid tariff sensitivity
Base: current tariff, no real growth. Sensitivity: +2%/yr real (payback 0.5-0.8yr faster); flat (standard); -1%/yr real (payback 0.3-0.5yr slower). Solar delivers positive NPV in all three. Always show sensitivity table in board submission.
Correct tax treatment
AIA: first £1m = £250k shield. FYA 50%: above £1m = £50k shield per £200k. Freeport ECA: 100% additional allowance on qualifying assets. After-tax cash payback typically 1-2 years faster than simple payback.
See more
DCF guide: /guides/warehouse-solar-dcf-model/. Finance guide: /guides/warehouse-solar-finance-options/. Contact: /contact/.
UK warehouse solar economics 2026 — at a glance
UK commercial solar PV for warehouses has fundamentally changed economically between 2019 and 2026. Three structural shifts drive current 4-6 year paybacks: grid electricity has nearly doubled from 12-15p/kWh blended day rate in 2019 to 16-26p/kWh in 2026, with peak Time-of-Use rates now reaching 28-35p/kWh during 16:00-19:00 evening peak; battery system cost has fallen from £700-£900/kWh installed in 2020 to £250-£450/kWh in 2026; and 100% Annual Investment Allowance up to £1m of capex per year delivers immediate 25% corporation tax relief on solar capex. A typical 1 MW warehouse rooftop solar install costs £700,000-£800,000, generates 870,000-950,000 kWh per year, displaces £155,000-£180,000 of grid electricity annually, and pays back in 4-5 years before tax — 3-4 years after AIA tax shield.
Compliance pressure driving warehouse solar adoption in 2026
Four converging UK compliance forces make warehouse solar effectively necessary by 2030. (1) MEES trajectory: the Government has consulted on tightening the minimum standard for let commercial property to EPC B — current expectation is around 2031, applying to larger buildings (over 1,000 sqm expected), with the earlier EPC C 2027 interim milestone dropped. Not yet enacted, but already shaping landlord decisions. Solar PV adds 5-15 EPC points and is often the most cost-effective compliance route for warehouse stock currently at EPC C-D. (2) ESOS Phase 4 (December 2027 deadline): Energy Savings Opportunity Scheme requires large UK businesses to commission energy audits and implement or document rationale for solar recommendations. (3) SECR reporting: mandatory Streamlined Energy and Carbon Reporting requires Scope 1+2 emissions disclosure in annual reports — solar PV directly reduces reported Scope 2 figure. (4) Customer Scope 3 mandates: Amazon Climate Pledge, Tesco Net Zero, M&S Plan A, Sainsbury's Plan for Better, John Lewis Net Zero, JLR/Stellantis Tier-1 supplier programmes all flow Scope 3 supplier requirements through contract weighting and CDP/EcoVadis reporting. 3PL operators and owner-occupied warehouses serving these customers face direct commercial consequences if they fail to demonstrate verifiable renewable generation by 2027-2030.
How we model warehouse solar — half-hourly meter data, not assumptions
Every warehouse solar feasibility we deliver starts with your 12 months of half-hourly meter data and a roof drawing. Standard online solar calculators use generic per-sqft estimates that miss the operational pattern variation driving 30-40% of total payback difference. Our methodology: PVSyst yield model calibrated for your specific roof orientation, tilt and shading; self-consumption profile derived from your actual half-hourly demand at 15-minute resolution; 25-year DCF with monthly cashflow granularity; capital allowance schedule (AIA + ECA where applicable); grant funding scenario where eligible (IETF Phase 3 for manufacturers above 1 GWh/yr); SEG export tariff and REGO income; O&M cost schedule; sensitivity analysis on grid tariff inflation, self-consumption ratio, capex per kW and discount rate. Output: simple payback, after-tax payback, IRR, NPV at 4%/6%/8% discount rates, and 25-year cumulative return. If the numbers do not work for your specific site, we say so — we will tell you plainly when the economics do not justify proceeding.
Get a free desk feasibility — 7 working days
Send us 12 months of half-hourly meter data and a roof drawing (PDF or DWG). Within 7 working days we deliver: indicative system size from PVSyst modelling of your specific roof; financial DCF showing payback, IRR and NPV under three financing routes (outright purchase, asset finance, PPA); customer Scope 3 audit pack template for your supply chain context; grant funding eligibility assessment (IETF, local and devolved grant schemes, Enterprise Zone ECA, Freeport ECA); DNO connection cost estimate from grid heatmap; structural pre-assessment from drawings; honest assessment of whether your site suits solar. No charge, no obligation. Send your meter data via our quote form or email info@solarpanelsforwarehouses.co.uk — quote within 7 working days, guaranteed.